Election Night. The very words conjure images of tight races, breathless anticipation, and the kind of suspense that rivals even the trickiest crossword puzzle on election night. For many, it’s a time of high stakes, fraught with anxiety, and punctuated by moments of potential exhilaration or disappointment. As the results trickle in, trying to make sense of the unfolding political landscape can feel as complex as solving a cryptic crossword under pressure.
Just as with a challenging crossword where every clue feels crucial, election night demands a strategic approach. Results can emerge slowly, over hours or even days, yet initial data can also paint a surprisingly clear picture. At 7 p.m. Eastern Time, polls close in Georgia, a key battleground state. North Carolina follows at 7:30 p.m., another pivotal swing state. Crucially, both states are known for their efficient vote counting, processing early and mail-in ballots ahead of Election Day. This efficiency means these early results can be particularly telling, like those first few solved words in a crossword that start to unlock the entire puzzle.
Understanding how to interpret these early returns, discerning valuable insights from noise, and maintaining your composure throughout the night is essential. To guide us through this intricate process, David Wasserman, a respected political analyst from the Cook Political Report, shared his expert advice on the Plain English podcast. His tips offer a roadmap to navigate election night with clarity and avoid getting lost in a maze of misinformation or premature conclusions. Here are three key strategies to help you follow election night like a seasoned pro, keeping your cool even when the political puzzle seems as perplexing as the results during a nail biting election night crossword.
Three Keys to Staying Sane on Election Night
1. Resist the Urge to Expect a 2016 or 2020 Repeat
It’s natural to look at current polls, showing a tight race between candidates like Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, and brace for another nail-bitingly close election reminiscent of 2016 or 2020. Polls suggest a near dead heat, with statistical models even showing a near 50/50 probability of either candidate winning. The possibility of an electoral vote tie is also within the realm of consideration.
However, according to Wasserman, drawing direct parallels to the razor-thin margins of 2016 and 2020 might be misleading. While current polling indicates a balanced electorate, he points out, “This is the closest election in polling that I’ve covered in my 17 years, but that doesn’t mean it’s going to produce the closest result.” The elections of 2016 and 2020 were historically tight, decided by a mere 78,000 votes across key states. Wasserman argues that even in a closely polled election year like 2024, it’s statistically unlikely for the outcome to hinge on such a narrow vote margin.
Think of it like this: while a sports betting analyst might call a Super Bowl a “pick-’em” between two equally matched teams, predicting an overtime finish – which has only happened twice in Super Bowl history – would still be statistically improbable. Similarly, in this election, a standard polling error could easily swing the outcome decisively in favor of either Trump or Harris across several swing states, leading to a more comfortable victory than the polls currently suggest.
We naturally seek certainty, but election forecasting deals in probabilities, a concept that can be difficult to grasp emotionally. If you flip a coin ten times, five heads and five tails is the most probable median outcome. Yet, achieving exactly five heads is less than a 25 percent likelihood. In fact, you are three times more likely to get a result other than five heads. Therefore, fixating on a specific, hyper-close electoral map outcome is statistically unlikely. Expecting an election decided by a mere 80,000 votes, despite the close polling, is a less probable scenario than many might assume.
Alt text: A diverse group of voters diligently filling out their ballots at a polling station, showcasing civic engagement.
2. Tune Out the Exit Poll Hype
Exit polls often become the center of attention early on election night. They offer a tempting first taste of data when everyone is anxiously awaiting real results. News outlets frequently highlight exit polls to fill airtime during the hours before actual vote counts become available. However, it’s crucial to understand that exit polls are not definitive predictors and can sometimes be misleading. As Wasserman notes, “there’s nothing particularly special about an exit poll. In many ways, it’s just another poll, but with a larger—and possibly misleading—sample.” In fact, with the rise of early voting, exit polls, which traditionally survey voters as they leave polling places on Election Day, might be less representative of the overall electorate.
For a more reliable early indication of election trends, Wasserman recommends focusing on county-level results that report complete vote tallies. These complete counts from specific counties offer a clearer, more grounded perspective than the potentially volatile data from exit polls. It’s also important to temper enthusiasm or alarm based on incomplete results. Patience and a focus on complete data are key to a more accurate early assessment of the election night landscape.
3. Focus on These Bellwether Counties for Early Clues
While national trends are important, the granular data from specific counties can provide quicker, more insightful signals on election night. By the end of the evening, we should have near-complete results from key counties in Georgia, North Carolina, and Michigan. These bellwether counties can act like the pivotal solved words in a crossword, offering crucial clues to the larger puzzle of the election outcome. Here are Wasserman’s recommended counties to watch:
Nash County, North Carolina
For a quintessential swing county in a swing state, Nash County, located just outside North Carolina’s Research Triangle, is an excellent indicator. Wasserman points out its consistent close margins: “the county has been decided by fewer than 1,000 votes in every presidential race since 2004.” In 2016, Trump won Nash by fewer than 100 votes out of 47,000 cast. In 2020, Biden won by under 200 votes out of 52,000. If Harris holds Nash County, it suggests she’s maintaining Democratic strength in more economically challenged areas while capitalizing on strong support in urban centers like Raleigh, Durham, and Chapel Hill.
Cobb County, Georgia
Metro Atlanta is the vote powerhouse of Georgia, and Cobb County is emblematic of the highly educated suburban demographic that has increasingly leaned Democratic in recent election cycles. In 2012, Romney won Cobb by over 12 points. By 2020, Biden flipped it, winning by 14 points. For Harris to secure victory, she needs to replicate Biden’s performance, achieving double-digit margins in similar, highly educated suburban counties across other swing states. Cobb County’s results will be a key indicator of this trend.
Alt text: Election officials diligently working late into the night, carefully tabulating and counting ballots to ensure accurate election results.
Baldwin County, Georgia
While Fulton County (Atlanta) will garner significant attention, Wasserman emphasizes watching mid-sized Georgia counties like Baldwin County. Located near Macon in central Georgia, Baldwin County has a significant African American population (around 40%) and a substantial youth vote due to being a college town. In 2016, Clinton won Baldwin by a narrow 1.7 points, and Biden won by 1.3 points in 2020. If Trump gains ground in Baldwin, Wasserman suggests, “it would be a sign that Harris is perhaps underperforming in both turnout and vote preference among younger Black voters and young voters” nationwide.
Saginaw County, Michigan
Saginaw County offers insights into whether polls underestimated Trump’s support among white men without college degrees—a crucial demographic in recent elections. Historically a Democratic stronghold, no Republican presidential candidate had won a plurality in Saginaw since 1984 until Trump narrowly carried it against Clinton in 2016. Biden reclaimed it for Democrats by a slim 0.3 points in 2020. “This is a place where organized labor powered Democrats to victory for many years,” Wasserman explains. “If Trump wins Saginaw by five points, it’s going to be very difficult for Harris to overcome that.” Saginaw’s shift will be a telling sign of broader trends in working-class voter support.
Deciphering the Election Puzzle
Election night, with its influx of data and heightened emotions, can feel overwhelming, much like facing a daunting crossword puzzle. However, by focusing on key bellwether counties, being cautious about exit polls, and managing expectations about the closeness of the race, you can navigate election night with greater clarity and less anxiety. Watching these specific counties and understanding the broader trends they indicate will provide a more informed and less stressful election night experience. Instead of getting lost in the nail-biting suspense, you can approach the evening with a strategic mindset, ready to decipher the results as they unfold, just like a crossword expert tackling their final clues.
